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State of the economy review by the Reserve Bank of
India (Mid-term Review of Annual Policy Statement for 2005-06)
The Reserve Bank of India’s Governor announced the
Mid-term Review of Annual Policy Statement for the year 2005-06 on
October 25, 2005. The highlights are as follows:
- Based on current assessment of a pick-up in agricultural output and
the momentum in other sectors, GDP growth projection for 2005-06 revised
to 7.0-7.5% from the earlier projection of around 7.0%.
- Inflation in the range of 5.0-5.5% projected. Forward looking policy
response is necessary to realise growth momentum and potential for
higher growth without adding to inflation expectations.
- Exports in US dollar terms in the first half of 2005-06 increased by
20.5% compared with 30.8% in the corresponding period in the previous
year. Imports rose by 33.1% as against an increase of 37.3% in the
corresponding period last year. Hardening of international crude oil
prices and import demand emanating from a pick-up in domestic industrial
activity contributed to the import growth observed.
- Foreign exchange reserves stood at US$ 143.4 billion as on October 14,
2005, increasing from US$ 141.5 billion as at end-March 2005.
- On balance, macroeconomic and financial conditions have evolved as
anticipated. Overall industrial growth has strengthened, monsoon fears
have eased, non-food credit growth has been buoyant, the demand for
government securities has been sustained and a pick-up in investment
demand is evident.
- Some downward risks to the economic outlook have emerged in the recent
months. Ensuring credit quality and increasing the pace of investment in
infrastructure is important. Asset prices have registered a substantial
increase. The overall positive sentiment, the business confidence of the
private sector and the strength as well as resilience of the domestic
economy would continue to determine capital flows.
- Bank Rate kept unchanged at 6.0%.
- Reverse Repo Rate increased by 25 basis points to 5.25%, effective
October 26, 2005.
- The cash reserve ratio (CRR) kept unchanged at 5.0 per cent.
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